December 18, 2026, could become one of the biggest days in modern Hollywood box-office history. Two highly anticipated movies, Dune: Part Three and Avengers: Doomsday, are scheduled to arrive in cinemas on the same day in the United States.
One film brings back the Marvel superheroes for a battle against Doctor Doom. The other concludes Denis Villeneuve’s epic science-fiction trilogy, starring Timothée Chalamet as Paul Atreides.
Both films have enormous fan bases, premium-format appeal, and the potential to dominate the holiday box office. But which movie could earn more on its first day?
Let’s compare their previous instalments, audience demand, franchise performance, and estimated opening-day collections.
1. Avengers: Doomsday vs Dune: Part Three: Previous Box Office Records
The best way to estimate a movie’s potential is to examine how its predecessor performed.
| Box-office metric | Avengers: Endgame | Dune: Part Two |
|---|---|---|
| Domestic opening weekend | $357.1 million | $82.5 million |
| Worldwide lifetime gross | $2.93 billion, including its 2026 re-release | Approximately $715 million |
| Franchise appeal | Global superhero event | Premium science-fiction epic |
Sources: Box Office Mojo. <Cite refs={[“turn295590search3″,”turn295590search0″,”turn295590search4”]}/>
These figures reveal a significant difference in scale. Endgame was an unprecedented global event, while Dune: Part Two delivered a highly successful theatrical run for a more specialised science-fiction franchise.
However, previous performance does not guarantee that Doomsday will match Endgame. Marvel must prove that its latest crossover can attract audiences on the same scale.
Similarly, Dune: Part Three could outperform its predecessor if anticipation for the trilogy’s conclusion translates into stronger ticket sales.
2. Avengers: Doomsday First-Day Collection Prediction
Avengers: Doomsday has several advantages heading into its release.
Robert Downey Jr. returns to Marvel as Doctor Doom, while the ensemble cast includes familiar Avengers, Fantastic Four characters, and actors from the X-Men films.
This combination gives Marvel an opportunity to attract multiple generations of superhero fans. The December release date could also encourage repeat viewings during the holiday season.
Estimated domestic first-day collection
Prediction: $100 million to $150 million
This is an analytical estimate for the US and Canadian market, not an official industry forecast. It assumes strong advance demand and a major opening-day audience.
For context, Avengers: Endgame opened to approximately $357.1 million domestically over its first weekend. <Cite refs={[“turn295590search3”]}/>
Doomsday would need an extraordinary opening to approach that level, but its cast and multiverse storyline could give it one of the strongest openings of 2026.
The biggest risk is that audience interest in the wider MCU may not be as concentrated as it was during the conclusion of the Infinity Saga.
3. Dune: Part Three First-Day Collection Prediction
Dune: Part Three has a different advantage: it concludes a major cinematic story directed by Denis Villeneuve.
The film follows Paul Atreides nearly two decades after he seized control of the Imperium. Timothée Chalamet returns alongside Zendaya, Florence Pugh, Jason Momoa, and Robert Pattinson. Warner Bros. has confirmed a December 18, 2026, North American release, with international screenings beginning earlier in some territories. <Cite refs={[“turn901250search1″,”turn901250search3”]}/>
The film’s IMAX presentation could also help it attract audiences seeking a premium theatrical experience.
Estimated domestic first-day collection
Prediction: $25 million to $40 million
This estimate assumes a stronger opening than Dune: Part Two achieved on its first domestic day, supported by the final-chapter effect and high audience anticipation.
For comparison, Dune: Part Two earned approximately $82.5 million during its domestic opening weekend. <Cite refs={[“turn295590search0″,”turn295590search4”]}/>
If the third film receives strong reviews and generates substantial repeat interest, it could surpass its predecessor’s opening performance.
However, its audience is likely to overlap less with the general superhero audience than Doomsday‘s audience does with Marvel’s wider fan base.
4. Worldwide First-Day Collection: Which Film Could Earn More?
Worldwide first-day collections are more complicated to compare because international release dates, time zones, preview screenings, and local distribution schedules can differ.
The following estimates are illustrative forecasts for each film’s initial 24-hour theatrical period, not confirmed figures or studio projections.
| Metric | Avengers: Doomsday | Dune: Part Three |
|---|---|---|
| Estimated domestic first day | $100M to $150M | $25M to $40M |
| Estimated worldwide first day | $150M to $220M | $40M to $75M |
| Forecast confidence | Low | Low |
These worldwide ranges are speculative and should be updated when advance ticket sales, release schedules, and reliable tracking reports become available. They are not calculated from confirmed first-day data.
The estimates suggest that Doomsday has the stronger potential opening, largely because of its broader franchise appeal. But Dune: Part Three could still perform exceptionally well, especially in IMAX and international markets.
5. Could the Dune and Doomsday Clash Reduce Their Earnings?
The simultaneous US release creates a challenge for both studios.
Premium screens, particularly IMAX, are limited. Both films are designed to deliver large-scale theatrical experiences, so competition for the best screens could become intense.
Dune: Part Three has a strong case for premium formats because of Villeneuve’s visual style and the franchise’s history with IMAX.
Doomsday, meanwhile, could benefit from the scale of its ensemble cast and the appeal of a major Marvel crossover.
The clash could encourage a phenomenon similar to “Barbenheimer”, when audiences turned two contrasting films into a shared theatrical event. However, there is no guarantee that the same behaviour will happen again.
If viewers choose to watch both films, the clash could expand the total box office rather than simply divide it.
6. Final Prediction: Who Will Win the First Day?
Based on historical franchise performance, Avengers: Doomsday is the stronger candidate to lead the domestic first-day box office.
Its worldwide superhero appeal, major returning actors, and multiverse storyline give it a potential advantage over Dune: Part Three.
Nevertheless, Dune: Part Three could deliver a powerful opening of its own, especially if it receives excellent reviews and becomes a must-see IMAX event.
The important distinction is that the estimates above are forecasts, not confirmed results. Actual first-day collections will depend on ticket sales, audience reactions, screening availability, and the final release schedules.
Current prediction: Avengers: Doomsday is more likely to win the first-day box-office race, while Dune: Part Three could still deliver one of the strongest science-fiction openings of 2026.
The real winner will only become clear when both films reach cinemas.